Our lives consist of predicting what will happen around us – from tiny things in the next few seconds to which job or education will yield us the best outcome. Some people are good at forecasting events that take place in complex systems, such as who will be the next Prime Minister in the UK or the melting rate of the ice in Antarctica. In this episode of Factor 2.9 we discuss the takeaways from the book ”Superforecasting” by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. You will learn what makes a superforecaster and what you can do to improve your own predictions.
00:30 Forecasting – what is it?
1:55 Conscious forecasting
3:25 What is superforecasting?
4:40 Superforecasters, what are they made of?
5:30 The importance of spotting your cognitive biases
7:45 Open-mindedness, curiosity and mobility of opinion
9:45 Hypotheses should be tested, not protected
11:30 Importance of granularity and fine-tuning of predictions
13:10 Pursue truth and be humble
13:45 When the input changes, the opinion should change as well
14:30 Numeracy and being comfortable with numbers
15:50 Keep a log of your forecasts and the outcome
16:15 Bayesian updating / probabilities
17:35 Update frequently
18:15 Criticism and limitations of superforecasting
19:00 Maybe not the black swans – but the grey
20:20 Group strength (wisdom of the crowd)
21:05 What the future may hold & reflexive markets
23:00 Thanks and until next week!